Ontinyent 1931 1–0 CF Gandía: Result & Stats

Ontinyent 1931

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CF Gandía

9/17/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 2Estadio Municipal El Clariano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ontinyent 193144%

×Draw29%

CF Gandía27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ontinyent 1931Expected goals in this matchCF Gandía

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.88

Ontinyent 1931

1.21

CF Gandía

0.88

Ontinyent 1931 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 32 away

1.08

creates per match

1.13

0.63

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Ontinyent 1931

1.08

CF Gandía

1.13

allows per match

Ontinyent 1931

0.63

CF Gandía

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ontinyent 1931+0.00on par

CF Gandía+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ontinyent 1931 ↓

CF Gandía →

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ontinyent 1931 or draw

73%

Ontinyent 1931 or CF Gandía

71%

Draw or CF Gandía

56%

Winning margin

Ontinyent 1931 wins by 2+

19%

CF Gandía wins by 2+

Team goals

Ontinyent 1931 1+ goals

70%

Ontinyent 1931 2+ goals

34%

Ontinyent 1931 3+ goals

12%

CF Gandía 1+ goals

59%

CF Gandía 2+ goals

22%

CF Gandía 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ontinyent 1931 (draw refunded)

62%

CF Gandía (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ontinyent 1931 at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.63 · 51 matches

CF Gandía away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ontinyent 1931 attack 1.08 + CF Gandía defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.21

CF Gandía attack 1.13 + Ontinyent 1931 defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ontinyent 1931 scores more

44%

level

29%

CF Gandía scores more

27%

Ontinyent 1931 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ontinyent 1931 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Ontinyent 1931 1–0 CF Gandía

Ontinyent 1931 beat CF Gandía 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Clariano in Ontinyent.

Ontinyent 1931 vs CF Gandía — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Ontinyent 1931 1–0 CF Gandía