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Ontinyent 1931 vs Castellón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Ontinyent 1931
Ontinyent 1931
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Castellón II
Castellón II
1/21/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 17Estadio Municipal El Clariano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ontinyent 193145%
×Draw28%
Castellón II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ontinyent 1931
1.31
Castellón II
0.93

Ontinyent 1931 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 67 away

creates per match

Ontinyent 1931
1.08
Castellón II
1.22

allows per match

Ontinyent 1931
0.63
Castellón II
1.54

finishing

Ontinyent 1931+0.00on par
Castellón II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ontinyent 1931 ↓

Castellón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ontinyent 1931 or draw
73%
Ontinyent 1931 or Castellón II
72%
Draw or Castellón II
55%

Winning margin

Ontinyent 1931 wins by 2+
21%
Castellón II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ontinyent 1931 1+ goals
73%
Ontinyent 1931 2+ goals
38%
Ontinyent 1931 3+ goals
14%
Castellón II 1+ goals
61%
Castellón II 2+ goals
24%
Castellón II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ontinyent 1931 (draw refunded)
63%
Castellón II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ontinyent 1931 at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.63 · 51 matches

Castellón II away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.54 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ontinyent 1931 attack 1.08 + Castellón II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.31

Castellón II attack 1.22 + Ontinyent 1931 defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ontinyent 1931 scores more
45%
level
28%
Castellón II scores more
27%

Ontinyent 1931 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ontinyent 1931 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Ontinyent 1931 1–0 Castellón II

Ontinyent 1931 beat Castellón II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Clariano in Ontinyent.