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Ontinyent 1931 vs Alzira — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Ontinyent 1931
Ontinyent 1931
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alzira
Alzira
10/5/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 5Estadio Municipal El Clariano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ontinyent 193143%
×Draw31%
Alzira26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ontinyent 1931
1.13
Alzira
0.82

Ontinyent 1931 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 45 away

creates per match

Ontinyent 1931
1.08
Alzira
1.02

allows per match

Ontinyent 1931
0.63
Alzira
1.18

finishing

Ontinyent 1931+0.00on par
Alzira+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ontinyent 1931 ↓

Alzira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ontinyent 1931 or draw
74%
Ontinyent 1931 or Alzira
69%
Draw or Alzira
57%

Winning margin

Ontinyent 1931 wins by 2+
18%
Alzira wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ontinyent 1931 1+ goals
68%
Ontinyent 1931 2+ goals
31%
Ontinyent 1931 3+ goals
11%
Alzira 1+ goals
56%
Alzira 2+ goals
20%
Alzira 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ontinyent 1931 (draw refunded)
62%
Alzira (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ontinyent 1931 at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.63 · 51 matches

Alzira away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.18 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ontinyent 1931 attack 1.08 + Alzira defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

Alzira attack 1.02 + Ontinyent 1931 defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ontinyent 1931 scores more
43%
level
31%
Alzira scores more
26%

Ontinyent 1931 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ontinyent 1931 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Ontinyent 1931 4–0 Alzira

Ontinyent 1931 beat Alzira 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Clariano in Ontinyent.