Ontinyent 1931 2–2 Acero: Result & Stats

Ontinyent 1931

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Acero

Miguel Richart 90+2'

Víctor Revert 18'

Fuster 62'

Imanol Alberdi 60'

5/5/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 33Estadio Municipal El Clariano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ontinyent 193148%

×Draw31%

Acero21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ontinyent 1931Expected goals in this matchAcero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.69

Ontinyent 1931

1.19

Acero

0.69

Ontinyent 1931 creates 72% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 77 away

1.08

creates per match

0.75

0.63

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Ontinyent 1931

1.08

Acero

0.75

allows per match

Ontinyent 1931

0.63

Acero

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ontinyent 1931+0.00on par

Acero+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ontinyent 1931 ↓

Acero →

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Ontinyent 1931 or draw

79%

Ontinyent 1931 or Acero

69%

Draw or Acero

52%

Winning margin

Ontinyent 1931 wins by 2+

21%

Acero wins by 2+

Team goals

Ontinyent 1931 1+ goals

70%

Ontinyent 1931 2+ goals

33%

Ontinyent 1931 3+ goals

12%

Acero 1+ goals

50%

Acero 2+ goals

15%

Acero 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ontinyent 1931 (draw refunded)

69%

Acero (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ontinyent 1931 at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.63 · 51 matches

Acero away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.29 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ontinyent 1931 attack 1.08 + Acero defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.19

Acero attack 0.75 + Ontinyent 1931 defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ontinyent 1931 scores more

48%

level

31%

Acero scores more

21%

Ontinyent 1931 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ontinyent 1931 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Víctor Revert

46'

Borja Mir← Julio Insa

54'

Andreu Serrano← Diego Cambra

55'

Imanol Alberdi← Adrián Morón

55'

Fuster← Alex Guillén

60'

Imanol Alberdi

62'

Fuster

65'

Juanjo Calvo← Chimo Reig

65'

Nicolas Cabanes← Pablo Francés

65'

Cambreta← Víctor Revert

73'

Miguel Richart← Alberto Osoro

89'

S. Castelnoble← Álvaro Loza

90+2'

Miguel Richart

Ontinyent

Acero

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Roberto Bas

54'▲Andreu Serrano←▼Diego Cambra

65'▲Juanjo Calvo←▼Chimo Reig

65'▲Nicolas Cabanes←▼Pablo Francés

65'▲Cambreta←▼Víctor Revert

73'▲Miguel Richart←▼Alberto Osoro

Ontinyent 1931 substitutes

SerranoCalvoCabanesCambretaRichart

Manager: Joaquín Poveda

46'▲Borja Mir←▼Julio Insa

55'▲Imanol Alberdi←▼Adrián Morón

55'▲Fuster←▼Alex Guillén

89'▲S. Castelnoble←▼Álvaro Loza

Acero substitutes

MirAlberdiFusterCastelnoble

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Ontinyent 1931 2–2 Acero

Ontinyent 1931 and Acero drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on May 5, 2024.

Goals: Víctor Revert (18'), Imanol Alberdi (60'), Fuster (62'), Miguel Richart (90+2').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Clariano in Ontinyent.

Ontinyent 1931 vs Acero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Ontinyent 1931 2–2 Acero