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Onsala vs Mjallby AIF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Onsala
Onsala
AET
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mjallby AIF
Mjallby AIF
8/20/2025Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundRydets IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Onsala16%
×Draw18%
Mjallby AIF66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Onsala
1.15
Mjallby AIF
2.50

Mjallby AIF creates 117% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

creates per match

Onsala
1.80
Mjallby AIF
2.79

allows per match

Onsala
2.20
Mjallby AIF
0.50

finishing

Onsala+0.00on par
Mjallby AIF+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Onsala ↓

Mjallby AIF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Onsala or draw
34%
Onsala or Mjallby AIF
82%
Draw or Mjallby AIF
84%

Winning margin

Onsala wins by 2+
6%
Mjallby AIF wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Onsala 1+ goals
68%
Onsala 2+ goals
32%
Onsala 3+ goals
11%
Mjallby AIF 1+ goals
92%
Mjallby AIF 2+ goals
71%
Mjallby AIF 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Onsala (draw refunded)
19%
Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Onsala at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Mjallby AIF away — creates 2.79, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Onsala attack 1.80 + Mjallby AIF defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.15

Mjallby AIF attack 2.79 + Onsala defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Onsala scores more
16%
level
18%
Mjallby AIF scores more
66%

Mjallby AIF at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Onsala vs Mjallby AIF

Onsala and Mjallby AIF drew 1-1 in Svenska Cupen on August 20, 2025.

The match was played at Rydets IP in Onsala.