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ONS Sneek vs DVS 33 Ermelo — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

ONS Sneek
ONS Sneek
FT
1 – 2
DVS 33 Ermelo
DVS 33 Ermelo
10/5/2019Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 7Zuidersportpark (Sneek)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

ONS Sneek32%
×Draw21%
DVS 33 Ermelo47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ONS Sneek
1.67
DVS 33 Ermelo
2.04

DVS 33 Ermelo creates 22% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 100 away

creates per match

ONS Sneek
1.82
DVS 33 Ermelo
1.54

allows per match

ONS Sneek
2.55
DVS 33 Ermelo
1.51

finishing

ONS Sneek+0.00on par
DVS 33 Ermelo+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ONS Sneek ↓

DVS 33 Ermelo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

ONS Sneek or draw
53%
ONS Sneek or DVS 33 Ermelo
79%
Draw or DVS 33 Ermelo
68%

Winning margin

ONS Sneek wins by 2+
16%
DVS 33 Ermelo wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

ONS Sneek 1+ goals
81%
ONS Sneek 2+ goals
50%
ONS Sneek 3+ goals
23%
DVS 33 Ermelo 1+ goals
87%
DVS 33 Ermelo 2+ goals
60%
DVS 33 Ermelo 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

ONS Sneek (draw refunded)
41%
DVS 33 Ermelo (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ONS Sneek at home — creates 1.82, concedes 2.55 · 11 matches

DVS 33 Ermelo away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.51 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ONS Sneek attack 1.82 + DVS 33 Ermelo defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.67

DVS 33 Ermelo attack 1.54 + ONS Sneek defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

ONS Sneek scores more
32%
level
21%
DVS 33 Ermelo scores more
47%

DVS 33 Ermelo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "DVS 33 Ermelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: ONS Sneek 1–2 DVS 33 Ermelo

DVS 33 Ermelo beat ONS Sneek 2-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Zuidersportpark (Sneek).