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ONS Sneek vs Ajax Amateurs — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

ONS Sneek
ONS Sneek
CANC
00:00
Ajax Amateurs
Ajax Amateurs
5/2/2020Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 31Zuidersportpark (Sneek)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

ONS Sneek41%
×Draw22%
Ajax Amateurs37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ONS Sneek
1.93
Ajax Amateurs
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 49 away

creates per match

ONS Sneek
1.82
Ajax Amateurs
1.12

allows per match

ONS Sneek
2.55
Ajax Amateurs
2.04

finishing

ONS Sneek+0.00on par
Ajax Amateurs+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ONS Sneek ↓

Ajax Amateurs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

ONS Sneek or draw
63%
ONS Sneek or Ajax Amateurs
78%
Draw or Ajax Amateurs
59%

Winning margin

ONS Sneek wins by 2+
22%
Ajax Amateurs wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

ONS Sneek 1+ goals
85%
ONS Sneek 2+ goals
57%
ONS Sneek 3+ goals
30%
Ajax Amateurs 1+ goals
84%
Ajax Amateurs 2+ goals
54%
Ajax Amateurs 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

ONS Sneek (draw refunded)
52%
Ajax Amateurs (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ONS Sneek at home — creates 1.82, concedes 2.55 · 11 matches

Ajax Amateurs away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ONS Sneek attack 1.82 + Ajax Amateurs defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.93

Ajax Amateurs attack 1.12 + ONS Sneek defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

ONS Sneek scores more
41%
level
22%
Ajax Amateurs scores more
37%

ONS Sneek at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "ONS Sneek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ONS Sneek face Ajax Amateurs (Derde Divisie - Saturday)

Derde Divisie - Saturday returns with ONS Sneek hosting Ajax Amateurs. Match starts May 2, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

ONS Sneek host Ajax Amateurs at Zuidersportpark (Sneek).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.