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Onor vs Syunik — First League 2019

Onor
Onor
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Syunik
Syunik
9/26/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 9Kasakhi Marzik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Onor15%
×Draw18%
Syunik67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Onor
1.06
Syunik
2.42

Syunik creates 128% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 57 away

creates per match

Onor
1.00
Syunik
2.14

allows per match

Onor
2.71
Syunik
1.11

finishing

Onor+0.00on par
Syunik+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Onor ↓

Syunik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Onor or draw
33%
Onor or Syunik
82%
Draw or Syunik
85%

Winning margin

Onor wins by 2+
5%
Syunik wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Onor 1+ goals
65%
Onor 2+ goals
29%
Onor 3+ goals
9%
Syunik 1+ goals
91%
Syunik 2+ goals
69%
Syunik 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Onor (draw refunded)
18%
Syunik (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Onor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

Syunik away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Onor attack 1.00 + Syunik defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Syunik attack 2.14 + Onor defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Onor scores more
15%
level
18%
Syunik scores more
67%

Syunik at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Syunik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Onor 0–4 Syunik

Syunik beat Onor 4-0 in First League on September 26, 2023.

The match was played at Kasakhi Marzik Stadium in Ashtarak.