Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Onor vs Shirak II — First League 2019

Onor
Onor
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Shirak II
Shirak II
9/16/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 7Kasakhi Marzik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Onor35%
×Draw22%
Shirak II43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Onor
1.72
Shirak II
1.94

Shirak II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 84 away

creates per match

Onor
1.00
Shirak II
1.17

allows per match

Onor
2.71
Shirak II
2.43

finishing

Onor+0.00on par
Shirak II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Onor ↓

Shirak II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Onor or draw
57%
Onor or Shirak II
78%
Draw or Shirak II
65%

Winning margin

Onor wins by 2+
17%
Shirak II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Onor 1+ goals
82%
Onor 2+ goals
51%
Onor 3+ goals
25%
Shirak II 1+ goals
86%
Shirak II 2+ goals
58%
Shirak II 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Onor (draw refunded)
44%
Shirak II (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Onor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

Shirak II away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.43 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Onor attack 1.00 + Shirak II defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.72

Shirak II attack 1.17 + Onor defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Onor scores more
35%
level
22%
Shirak II scores more
43%

Shirak II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Shirak II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Onor vs Shirak II

Onor beat Shirak II 5-2 in First League on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Kasakhi Marzik Stadium in Ashtarak.