Onor 0–1 Gandzasar: Result & Stats | First League

Onor

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Gandzasar

11/29/2023

First League · Round 16Kasakhi Marzik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Onor16%

×Draw19%

Gandzasar66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OnorExpected goals in this matchGandzasar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

2.35

Onor

1.07

Gandzasar

2.35

Gandzasar creates 120% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 44 away

1.00

creates per match

2.00

2.71

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Onor

1.00

Gandzasar

2.00

allows per match

Onor

2.71

Gandzasar

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Onor+0.00on par

Gandzasar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Onor ↓

Gandzasar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Onor or draw

34%

Onor or Gandzasar

81%

Draw or Gandzasar

84%

Winning margin

Onor wins by 2+

6%

Gandzasar wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Onor 1+ goals

66%

Onor 2+ goals

29%

Onor 3+ goals

9%

Gandzasar 1+ goals

90%

Gandzasar 2+ goals

68%

Gandzasar 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Onor (draw refunded)

20%

Gandzasar (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Onor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

Gandzasar away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.14 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Onor attack 1.00 + Gandzasar defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Gandzasar attack 2.00 + Onor defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Onor scores more

16%

level

19%

Gandzasar scores more

66%

Gandzasar at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Gandzasar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff