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Onor vs BKMA II — First League 2019

Onor
Onor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
BKMA II
BKMA II
8/15/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 3Kasakhi Marzik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Onor16%
×Draw18%
BKMA II66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Onor
1.12
BKMA II
2.46

BKMA II creates 120% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 71 away

creates per match

Onor
1.00
BKMA II
2.20

allows per match

Onor
2.71
BKMA II
1.24

finishing

Onor+0.00on par
BKMA II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Onor ↓

BKMA II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Onor or draw
34%
Onor or BKMA II
82%
Draw or BKMA II
84%

Winning margin

Onor wins by 2+
6%
BKMA II wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Onor 1+ goals
67%
Onor 2+ goals
31%
Onor 3+ goals
10%
BKMA II 1+ goals
91%
BKMA II 2+ goals
70%
BKMA II 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Onor (draw refunded)
19%
BKMA II (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Onor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

BKMA II away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.24 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Onor attack 1.00 + BKMA II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.12

BKMA II attack 2.20 + Onor defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Onor scores more
16%
level
18%
BKMA II scores more
66%

BKMA II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "BKMA II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Onor 0–1 BKMA II

BKMA II beat Onor 1-0 in First League on August 15, 2023.

The match was played at Kasakhi Marzik Stadium in Ashtarak.