Onor 1–1 Ararat-Armenia II: Result & Stats

Onor

FT

1 – 1

Ararat-Armenia II

10/19/2023

First League · Round 11Kasakhi Marzik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Onor26%

×Draw21%

Ararat-Armenia II53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OnorExpected goals in this matchArarat-Armenia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

2.09

Onor

1.43

Ararat-Armenia II

2.09

Ararat-Armenia II creates 46% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 99 away

1.00

creates per match

1.48

2.71

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Onor

1.00

Ararat-Armenia II

1.48

allows per match

Onor

2.71

Ararat-Armenia II

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Onor+0.00on par

Ararat-Armenia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Onor ↓

Ararat-Armenia II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Onor or draw

47%

Onor or Ararat-Armenia II

79%

Draw or Ararat-Armenia II

74%

Winning margin

Onor wins by 2+

12%

Ararat-Armenia II wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Onor 1+ goals

76%

Onor 2+ goals

42%

Onor 3+ goals

17%

Ararat-Armenia II 1+ goals

88%

Ararat-Armenia II 2+ goals

62%

Ararat-Armenia II 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Onor (draw refunded)

33%

Ararat-Armenia II (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Onor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

Ararat-Armenia II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.86 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Onor attack 1.00 + Ararat-Armenia II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Ararat-Armenia II attack 1.48 + Onor defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Onor scores more

26%

level

21%

Ararat-Armenia II scores more

53%

Ararat-Armenia II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ararat-Armenia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff