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Onor vs Andranik — First League 2019

Onor
Onor
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Andranik
Andranik
4/15/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 23Kasakhi Marzik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Onor19%
×Draw19%
Andranik62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Onor
1.19
Andranik
2.30

Andranik creates 93% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 41 away

creates per match

Onor
1.00
Andranik
1.90

allows per match

Onor
2.71
Andranik
1.39

finishing

Onor+0.00on par
Andranik+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Onor ↓

Andranik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Onor or draw
38%
Onor or Andranik
81%
Draw or Andranik
81%

Winning margin

Onor wins by 2+
7%
Andranik wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Onor 1+ goals
70%
Onor 2+ goals
33%
Onor 3+ goals
12%
Andranik 1+ goals
90%
Andranik 2+ goals
67%
Andranik 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Onor (draw refunded)
23%
Andranik (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Onor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

Andranik away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.39 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Onor attack 1.00 + Andranik defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Andranik attack 1.90 + Onor defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Onor scores more
19%
level
19%
Andranik scores more
62%

Andranik at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Andranik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Onor 0 – 4 Andranik

Andranik beat Onor 4-0 in First League on April 15, 2024.

The match was played at Kasakhi Marzik Stadium in Ashtarak.