Onor 2–3 Alashkert II: Result & Stats

Onor

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Alashkert II

5/18/2024

First League · Round 25Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Onor34%

×Draw21%

Alashkert II44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OnorExpected goals in this matchAlashkert II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

2.05

Onor

1.79

Alashkert II

2.05

Alashkert II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 64 away

1.00

creates per match

1.39

2.71

allows per match

2.58

creates per match

Onor

1.00

Alashkert II

1.39

allows per match

Onor

2.71

Alashkert II

2.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Onor+0.00on par

Alashkert II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Onor ↓

Alashkert II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Onor or draw

56%

Onor or Alashkert II

79%

Draw or Alashkert II

66%

Winning margin

Onor wins by 2+

17%

Alashkert II wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Onor 1+ goals

83%

Onor 2+ goals

53%

Onor 3+ goals

26%

Alashkert II 1+ goals

87%

Alashkert II 2+ goals

61%

Alashkert II 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Onor (draw refunded)

44%

Alashkert II (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Onor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

Alashkert II away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.58 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Onor attack 1.00 + Alashkert II defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.79

Alashkert II attack 1.39 + Onor defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Onor scores more

34%

level

21%

Alashkert II scores more

44%

Alashkert II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Alashkert II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff