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Onix Banjë vs Llapi — Cup 2019

Onix Banjë
Onix Banjë
FT
2 – 4
Llapi
Llapi
12/16/2020CupCup · 16th FinalsStadiumi Demush Mavraj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Onix Banjë12%
×Draw16%
Llapi72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Onix Banjë
0.97
Llapi
2.63

Llapi creates 171% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

creates per match

Onix Banjë
1.00
Llapi
1.93

allows per match

Onix Banjë
3.33
Llapi
0.93

finishing

Onix Banjë+0.00on par
Llapi+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Onix Banjë ↓

Llapi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–210%
0–38%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Onix Banjë or draw
28%
Onix Banjë or Llapi
84%
Draw or Llapi
88%

Winning margin

Onix Banjë wins by 2+
4%
Llapi wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Onix Banjë 1+ goals
62%
Onix Banjë 2+ goals
25%
Onix Banjë 3+ goals
7%
Llapi 1+ goals
93%
Llapi 2+ goals
73%
Llapi 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Onix Banjë (draw refunded)
14%
Llapi (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Onix Banjë at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Llapi away — creates 1.93, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Onix Banjë attack 1.00 + Llapi defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Llapi attack 1.93 + Onix Banjë defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Onix Banjë scores more
12%
level
16%
Llapi scores more
72%

Llapi at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Llapi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Onix Banjë 2–4 Llapi

Llapi beat Onix Banjë 4-2 in Cup on December 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stadiumi Demush Mavraj in Istog.