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Onix Banjë vs Ballkani — Cup 2019

Onix Banjë
Onix Banjë
FT
1 – 3
Ballkani
Ballkaniadvanced
11/24/2022CupCup · Round of 32Stadiumi i Vitomiricës

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Onix Banjë12%
×Draw17%
Ballkani71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Onix Banjë
0.91
Ballkani
2.48

Ballkani creates 173% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

creates per match

Onix Banjë
1.00
Ballkani
1.64

allows per match

Onix Banjë
3.33
Ballkani
0.82

finishing

Onix Banjë+0.00on par
Ballkani+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Onix Banjë ↓

Ballkani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–211%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–24%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Onix Banjë or draw
29%
Onix Banjë or Ballkani
83%
Draw or Ballkani
88%

Winning margin

Onix Banjë wins by 2+
4%
Ballkani wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Onix Banjë 1+ goals
60%
Onix Banjë 2+ goals
23%
Onix Banjë 3+ goals
6%
Ballkani 1+ goals
92%
Ballkani 2+ goals
70%
Ballkani 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Onix Banjë (draw refunded)
14%
Ballkani (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Onix Banjë at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Ballkani away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Onix Banjë attack 1.00 + Ballkani defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.91

Ballkani attack 1.64 + Onix Banjë defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Onix Banjë scores more
12%
level
17%
Ballkani scores more
71%

Ballkani at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Ballkani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Onix Banjë 1–3 Ballkani

Ballkani beat Onix Banjë 3-1 in Cup on November 24, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi i Vitomiricës in Vitomiricë.