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Onet-le-Château vs Colomiers — League #461 2026

Onet-le-Château
Onet-le-Château
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Colomiers
Colomiers
5/16/2026League #461League #461

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Onet-le-Château40%
×Draw21%
Colomiers40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Onet-le-Château
2.00
Colomiers
2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Onet-le-Château
1.67
Colomiers
2.00

allows per match

Onet-le-Château
2.00
Colomiers
2.33

finishing

Onet-le-Château+0.00on par
Colomiers+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Onet-le-Château ↓

Colomiers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Onet-le-Château or draw
60%
Onet-le-Château or Colomiers
79%
Draw or Colomiers
60%

Winning margin

Onet-le-Château wins by 2+
22%
Colomiers wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Onet-le-Château 1+ goals
86%
Onet-le-Château 2+ goals
59%
Onet-le-Château 3+ goals
32%
Colomiers 1+ goals
86%
Colomiers 2+ goals
59%
Colomiers 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Onet-le-Château (draw refunded)
50%
Colomiers (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Onet-le-Château at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Colomiers away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Onet-le-Château attack 1.67 + Colomiers defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Colomiers attack 2.00 + Onet-le-Château defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Onet-le-Château scores more
40%
level
21%
Colomiers scores more
40%

Onet-le-Château at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Onet-le-Château will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #461: Onet-le-Château 4–2 Colomiers

Onet-le-Château beat Colomiers 4-2 in League #461 on May 16, 2026.