Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

One Knoxville vs Texas United — USL League Two 2018

One Knoxville
One Knoxvilleadvanced
AET
4 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Texas United
Texas United
Unknown 120+1'
S. Afrifa 100'
J. Thomas 86', 53'
H. Romero 89'
E. Jaaskelainen 54'
7/22/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Conference - Quarter-finalsWest High School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

One Knoxville44%
×Draw22%
Texas United34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

One Knoxville
1.88
Texas United
1.64

One Knoxville creates 15% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 24 away

creates per match

One Knoxville
2.22
Texas United
2.50

allows per match

One Knoxville
0.78
Texas United
1.54

finishing

One Knoxville+0.00on par
Texas United+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

One Knoxville ↓

Texas United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

One Knoxville or draw
66%
One Knoxville or Texas United
78%
Draw or Texas United
56%

Winning margin

One Knoxville wins by 2+
24%
Texas United wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

One Knoxville 1+ goals
85%
One Knoxville 2+ goals
56%
One Knoxville 3+ goals
29%
Texas United 1+ goals
81%
Texas United 2+ goals
49%
Texas United 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

One Knoxville (draw refunded)
56%
Texas United (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

One Knoxville at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Texas United away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

One Knoxville attack 2.22 + Texas United defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.88

Texas United attack 2.50 + One Knoxville defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

One Knoxville scores more
44%
level
22%
Texas United scores more
34%

One Knoxville at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "One Knoxville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'
J. Thomas
54'
E. Jaaskelainen
86'
J. Thomas
89'
H. Romero
100'
S. Afrifa
120+1'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: One Knoxville vs Texas United

One Knoxville beat Texas United 4-2 in USL League Two on July 22, 2022.

Goals: J. Thomas (53', 86'), E. Jaaskelainen (54'), H. Romero (89'), S. Afrifa (100'), ? (120+1').

The match was played at West High School Stadium in Columbus, Ohio.