Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

One Knoxville vs Dalton Red Wolves — USL League Two 2018

One Knoxville
One Knoxville
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Dalton Red Wolves
Dalton Red Wolves
5/28/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 17Knoxville Catholic High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

One Knoxville60%
×Draw21%
Dalton Red Wolves19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

One Knoxville
2.05
Dalton Red Wolves
1.04

One Knoxville creates 97% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 24 away

creates per match

One Knoxville
2.22
Dalton Red Wolves
1.29

allows per match

One Knoxville
0.78
Dalton Red Wolves
1.88

finishing

One Knoxville+0.00on par
Dalton Red Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

One Knoxville ↓

Dalton Red Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

One Knoxville or draw
81%
One Knoxville or Dalton Red Wolves
79%
Draw or Dalton Red Wolves
40%

Winning margin

One Knoxville wins by 2+
37%
Dalton Red Wolves wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

One Knoxville 1+ goals
87%
One Knoxville 2+ goals
61%
One Knoxville 3+ goals
33%
Dalton Red Wolves 1+ goals
65%
Dalton Red Wolves 2+ goals
28%
Dalton Red Wolves 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

One Knoxville (draw refunded)
76%
Dalton Red Wolves (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

One Knoxville at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Dalton Red Wolves away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

One Knoxville attack 2.22 + Dalton Red Wolves defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.05

Dalton Red Wolves attack 1.29 + One Knoxville defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

One Knoxville scores more
60%
level
21%
Dalton Red Wolves scores more
19%

One Knoxville at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "One Knoxville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: One Knoxville vs Dalton Red Wolves

One Knoxville beat Dalton Red Wolves 4-1 in USL League Two on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Knoxville Catholic High School in Knoxville, Tennessee.