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Onduparaka vs UPDF — Premier League 2019

Onduparaka
Onduparaka
CANC
12:00
UPDF
UPDF
6/30/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 30Green Light Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Onduparaka47%
×Draw27%
UPDF26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Onduparaka
1.45
UPDF
1.00

Onduparaka creates 45% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 87 away

creates per match

Onduparaka
1.19
UPDF
0.92

allows per match

Onduparaka
1.07
UPDF
1.71

finishing

Onduparaka+0.00on par
UPDF+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Onduparaka ↓

UPDF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Onduparaka or draw
74%
Onduparaka or UPDF
73%
Draw or UPDF
53%

Winning margin

Onduparaka wins by 2+
23%
UPDF wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Onduparaka 1+ goals
77%
Onduparaka 2+ goals
42%
Onduparaka 3+ goals
18%
UPDF 1+ goals
63%
UPDF 2+ goals
26%
UPDF 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Onduparaka (draw refunded)
65%
UPDF (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Onduparaka at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.07 · 54 matches

UPDF away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.71 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Onduparaka attack 1.19 + UPDF defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.45

UPDF attack 0.92 + Onduparaka defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Onduparaka scores more
47%
level
27%
UPDF scores more
26%

Onduparaka at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Onduparaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Onduparaka face UPDF (Premier League)

Premier League returns with Onduparaka hosting UPDF. Match starts June 30, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Onduparaka host UPDF at Green Light Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.