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Onduparaka vs MYDA — Premier League 2019

Onduparaka
Onduparaka
FT
2 – 3
MYDA
MYDA
J. Malish 45+4'
M. Okot 18'
P. Mutebi 88'
E. Mutebi 80' (pen), 29' (pen)
4/20/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Green Light Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Onduparaka60%
×Draw21%
MYDA19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Onduparaka
2.02
MYDA
1.04

Onduparaka creates 94% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 13 away

creates per match

Onduparaka
1.19
MYDA
1.00

allows per match

Onduparaka
1.07
MYDA
2.85

finishing

Onduparaka+0.00on par
MYDA+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Onduparaka ↓

MYDA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Onduparaka or draw
81%
Onduparaka or MYDA
79%
Draw or MYDA
40%

Winning margin

Onduparaka wins by 2+
36%
MYDA wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Onduparaka 1+ goals
87%
Onduparaka 2+ goals
60%
Onduparaka 3+ goals
33%
MYDA 1+ goals
65%
MYDA 2+ goals
28%
MYDA 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Onduparaka (draw refunded)
76%
MYDA (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Onduparaka at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.07 · 54 matches

MYDA away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Onduparaka attack 1.19 + MYDA defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.02

MYDA attack 1.00 + Onduparaka defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Onduparaka scores more
60%
level
21%
MYDA scores more
19%

Onduparaka at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Onduparaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
M. Okot
26'
B. Lojum
29'
E. MutebiPenalty
45+4'
J. Malish
54'
S. Okello
56'
R. Mpata
60'
L. Kabon← L. Kabon
60'
R. Okocha← R. Okocha
60'
A. Mukiibi← A. Mukiibi
63'
D. Andama
70'
I. Nsimbe← I. Nsimbe
74'
J. Rogers← J. Rogers
79'
B. Lojum
79'
B. Lojum
80'
E. MutebiPenalty
88'
P. Mutebi
90+7'
J. Malish

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Onduparaka 2–3 MYDA

MYDA beat Onduparaka 3-2 in Premier League on April 20, 2021.

Goals: M. Okot (18'), E. Mutebi (29' pen, 80' pen), J. Malish (45+4'), P. Mutebi (88').

The match was played at Green Light Stadium in Arua.