Onduparaka 2–1 Gaddafi: Result & Stats

Onduparaka

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Gaddafi

3/4/2023

Premier League · Round 18Ababet Green Light Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Onduparaka52%

×Draw26%

Gaddafi22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OnduparakaExpected goals in this matchGaddafi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.86

Onduparaka

1.50

Gaddafi

0.86

Onduparaka creates 74% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 44 away

1.19

creates per match

0.66

1.07

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Onduparaka

1.19

Gaddafi

0.66

allows per match

Onduparaka

1.07

Gaddafi

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Onduparaka+0.00on par

Gaddafi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Onduparaka ↓

Gaddafi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Onduparaka or draw

78%

Onduparaka or Gaddafi

74%

Draw or Gaddafi

48%

Winning margin

Onduparaka wins by 2+

27%

Gaddafi wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Onduparaka 1+ goals

78%

Onduparaka 2+ goals

44%

Onduparaka 3+ goals

19%

Gaddafi 1+ goals

58%

Gaddafi 2+ goals

21%

Gaddafi 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Onduparaka (draw refunded)

71%

Gaddafi (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Onduparaka at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.07 · 54 matches

Gaddafi away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.82 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Onduparaka attack 1.19 + Gaddafi defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.50

Gaddafi attack 0.66 + Onduparaka defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Onduparaka scores more

52%

level

26%

Gaddafi scores more

22%

Onduparaka at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Onduparaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff