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Onduparaka vs Arua Hill — Premier League 2019

Onduparaka
Onduparaka
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Arua Hill
Arua Hill
R. Kawawa 77', 44'
M. Innocent 60'
5/6/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28Green Light Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Onduparaka46%
×Draw28%
Arua Hill26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Onduparaka
1.30
Arua Hill
0.91

Onduparaka creates 43% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 36 away

creates per match

Onduparaka
1.19
Arua Hill
0.75

allows per match

Onduparaka
1.07
Arua Hill
1.42

finishing

Onduparaka+0.00on par
Arua Hill+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Onduparaka ↓

Arua Hill →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Onduparaka or draw
74%
Onduparaka or Arua Hill
72%
Draw or Arua Hill
54%

Winning margin

Onduparaka wins by 2+
21%
Arua Hill wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Onduparaka 1+ goals
73%
Onduparaka 2+ goals
37%
Onduparaka 3+ goals
14%
Arua Hill 1+ goals
60%
Arua Hill 2+ goals
23%
Arua Hill 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Onduparaka (draw refunded)
64%
Arua Hill (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Onduparaka at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.07 · 54 matches

Arua Hill away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Onduparaka attack 1.19 + Arua Hill defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.30

Arua Hill attack 0.75 + Onduparaka defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Onduparaka scores more
46%
level
28%
Arua Hill scores more
26%

Onduparaka at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Onduparaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
V. Bright
28'
G. Atendele
44'
R. Kawawa
45+4'
J. Rogers
46'
G. Matata← G. Matata
53'
Y. Rashid
58'
M. Innocent← M. Innocent
60'
M. Innocent
61'
J. Rogers
61'
J. Rogers
68'
I. Eyam
77'
R. Kawawa
78'
M. Shaban

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Onduparaka vs Arua Hill

Arua Hill beat Onduparaka 3-0 in Premier League on May 6, 2022.

Goals: R. Kawawa (44', 77'), M. Innocent (60').

The match was played at Green Light Stadium in Arua.