Once Municipal 1–2 Platense FC: Result & Stats

Once Municipal

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Platense FC

B. Paz 3'

W. Novoa 63', 1'

4/24/2022

Primera Division · Clausura - 1st Phase - 19Estadio Arturo Simeón Magaña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Once Municipal39%

×Draw29%

Platense FC33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Once MunicipalExpected goals in this matchPlatense FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.06

Once Municipal

1.18

Platense FC

1.06

Once Municipal creates 11% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 27 away

1.14

creates per match

1.07

1.05

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Once Municipal

1.14

Platense FC

1.07

allows per match

Once Municipal

1.05

Platense FC

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Once Municipal+0.00on par

Platense FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Municipal ↓

Platense FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Once Municipal or draw

67%

Once Municipal or Platense FC

71%

Draw or Platense FC

61%

Winning margin

Once Municipal wins by 2+

16%

Platense FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Once Municipal 1+ goals

69%

Once Municipal 2+ goals

33%

Once Municipal 3+ goals

12%

Platense FC 1+ goals

65%

Platense FC 2+ goals

29%

Platense FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Once Municipal (draw refunded)

54%

Platense FC (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Municipal at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.05 · 118 matches

Platense FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Municipal attack 1.14 + Platense FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.18

Platense FC attack 1.07 + Once Municipal defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Once Municipal scores more

39%

level

29%

Platense FC scores more

33%

Once Municipal at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Once Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

W. Novoa

3'

B. Paz

46'

I. Herrera← M. Martínez

63'

W. Novoa

64'

J. Delgado← R. Burgos

64'

V. Landazuri← W. Novoa

67'

E. Flores← J. Hylton

67'

C. Guzmán← L. Rojas

76'

R. Orellana← J. Barahona

79'

F. Pacheco← J. Rivera

86'

A. Hernández← G. Baires

88'

J. Mare← K. Menjívar

Once

Platense

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: R. Da Silva

67'▲E. Flores←▼J. Hylton

67'▲C. Guzmán←▼L. Rojas

79'▲F. Pacheco←▼J. Rivera

88'▲J. Mare←▼K. Menjívar

Once Municipal substitutes

FloresGuzmánPachecoMare

Manager: I. Ruiz

46'▲I. Herrera←▼M. Martínez

64'▲J. Delgado←▼R. Burgos

64'▲V. Landazuri←▼W. Novoa

76'▲R. Orellana←▼J. Barahona

86'▲A. Hernández←▼G. Baires

Platense FC substitutes

HerreraDelgadoLandazuriOrellanaHernández

Primera Division: Once Municipal 1–2 Platense FC

Platense FC beat Once Municipal 2-1 in Primera Division on April 24, 2022.

Goals: W. Novoa (1', 63'), B. Paz (3').

The match was played at Estadio Arturo Simeón Magaña in Ahuachapán.

Once Municipal vs Platense FC — Primera Division 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera Division: Once Municipal 1–2 Platense FC