Once Municipal 0–1 Municipal Limeño: Result & Stats

Once Municipal

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Municipal Limeño

1/21/2024

Primera Division · Clausura - 2Estadio Arturo Simeón Magaña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Once Municipal40%

×Draw28%

Municipal Limeño32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Once MunicipalExpected goals in this matchMunicipal Limeño

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.06

Once Municipal

1.23

Municipal Limeño

1.06

Once Municipal creates 16% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 130 away

1.14

creates per match

1.07

1.05

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Once Municipal

1.14

Municipal Limeño

1.07

allows per match

Once Municipal

1.05

Municipal Limeño

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Once Municipal+0.00on par

Municipal Limeño+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Municipal ↓

Municipal Limeño →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Once Municipal or draw

68%

Once Municipal or Municipal Limeño

72%

Draw or Municipal Limeño

60%

Winning margin

Once Municipal wins by 2+

17%

Municipal Limeño wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Once Municipal 1+ goals

71%

Once Municipal 2+ goals

35%

Once Municipal 3+ goals

13%

Municipal Limeño 1+ goals

65%

Municipal Limeño 2+ goals

29%

Municipal Limeño 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Once Municipal (draw refunded)

56%

Municipal Limeño (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Municipal at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.05 · 118 matches

Municipal Limeño away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.32 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Municipal attack 1.14 + Municipal Limeño defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Municipal Limeño attack 1.07 + Once Municipal defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Once Municipal scores more

40%

level

28%

Municipal Limeño scores more

32%

Once Municipal at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Once Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff