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Municipal Limeño vs Once Municipal — Primera Division 2019

Municipal Limeño
Municipal Limeño
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Once Municipal
Once Municipal
10/6/2024Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - 14Estadio Dr. Ramón Flores Berríos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

Municipal Limeño45%
×Draw27%
Once Municipal29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Municipal Limeño
1.41
Once Municipal
1.07

Municipal Limeño creates 32% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 122 away

creates per match

Municipal Limeño
1.35
Once Municipal
1.02

allows per match

Municipal Limeño
1.13
Once Municipal
1.47

finishing

Municipal Limeño+0.00on par
Once Municipal+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Municipal Limeño ↓

Once Municipal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Municipal Limeño or draw
71%
Municipal Limeño or Once Municipal
73%
Draw or Once Municipal
55%

Winning margin

Municipal Limeño wins by 2+
21%
Once Municipal wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Municipal Limeño 1+ goals
76%
Municipal Limeño 2+ goals
41%
Municipal Limeño 3+ goals
17%
Once Municipal 1+ goals
66%
Once Municipal 2+ goals
29%
Once Municipal 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Municipal Limeño (draw refunded)
61%
Once Municipal (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Municipal Limeño at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.13 · 130 matches

Once Municipal away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.47 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Municipal Limeño attack 1.35 + Once Municipal defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.41

Once Municipal attack 1.02 + Municipal Limeño defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Municipal Limeño scores more
45%
level
27%
Once Municipal scores more
29%

Municipal Limeño at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Municipal Limeño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Municipal Limeño 0–2 Once Municipal

Once Municipal beat Municipal Limeño 2-0 in Primera Division on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Dr. Ramón Flores Berríos in Santa Rosa de Lima.