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Once Municipal vs Independiente — Primera Division 2019

Once Municipal
Once Municipal
CANC
21:00
Independiente
Independiente
3/15/2020Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 12Estadio Arturo Simeón Magaña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Once Municipal41%
×Draw30%
Independiente30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Once Municipal
1.16
Independiente
0.94

Once Municipal creates 23% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 17 away

creates per match

Once Municipal
1.14
Independiente
0.82

allows per match

Once Municipal
1.05
Independiente
1.18

finishing

Once Municipal+0.00on par
Independiente+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Municipal ↓

Independiente →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Once Municipal or draw
70%
Once Municipal or Independiente
70%
Draw or Independiente
59%

Winning margin

Once Municipal wins by 2+
17%
Independiente wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Once Municipal 1+ goals
69%
Once Municipal 2+ goals
32%
Once Municipal 3+ goals
11%
Independiente 1+ goals
61%
Independiente 2+ goals
24%
Independiente 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Once Municipal (draw refunded)
58%
Independiente (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Municipal at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.05 · 118 matches

Independiente away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Municipal attack 1.14 + Independiente defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.16

Independiente attack 0.82 + Once Municipal defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Once Municipal scores more
41%
level
30%
Independiente scores more
30%

Once Municipal at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Once Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Once Municipal host Independiente

March 15, 2020: Once Municipal take on Independiente in Primera Division. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Once Municipal host Independiente at Estadio Arturo Simeón Magaña.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.