Once Municipal 1–0 Fuerte San Francisco

Once Municipal

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fuerte San Francisco

8/20/2023

Primera Division · Apertura - 2Estadio Arturo Simeón Magaña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Once Municipal44%

×Draw28%

Fuerte San Francisco28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Once MunicipalExpected goals in this matchFuerte San Francisco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.99

Once Municipal

1.32

Fuerte San Francisco

0.99

Once Municipal creates 33% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 67 away

1.14

creates per match

0.94

1.05

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Once Municipal

1.14

Fuerte San Francisco

0.94

allows per match

Once Municipal

1.05

Fuerte San Francisco

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Once Municipal+0.00on par

Fuerte San Francisco+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Municipal ↓

Fuerte San Francisco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Once Municipal or draw

72%

Once Municipal or Fuerte San Francisco

72%

Draw or Fuerte San Francisco

56%

Winning margin

Once Municipal wins by 2+

20%

Fuerte San Francisco wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Once Municipal 1+ goals

73%

Once Municipal 2+ goals

38%

Once Municipal 3+ goals

15%

Fuerte San Francisco 1+ goals

63%

Fuerte San Francisco 2+ goals

26%

Fuerte San Francisco 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Once Municipal (draw refunded)

61%

Fuerte San Francisco (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Municipal at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.05 · 118 matches

Fuerte San Francisco away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.51 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Municipal attack 1.14 + Fuerte San Francisco defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.32

Fuerte San Francisco attack 0.94 + Once Municipal defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Once Municipal scores more

44%

level

28%

Fuerte San Francisco scores more

28%

Once Municipal at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Once Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff