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Fuerte San Francisco vs Once Municipal — Primera Division 2019

Fuerte San Francisco
Fuerte San Francisco
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Once Municipal
Once Municipal
9/8/2024Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - 9Estadio Correcaminos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Fuerte San Francisco35%
×Draw28%
Once Municipal37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fuerte San Francisco
1.13
Once Municipal
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 122 away

creates per match

Fuerte San Francisco
0.79
Once Municipal
1.02

allows per match

Fuerte San Francisco
1.33
Once Municipal
1.47

finishing

Fuerte San Francisco+0.00on par
Once Municipal+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuerte San Francisco ↓

Once Municipal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fuerte San Francisco or draw
63%
Fuerte San Francisco or Once Municipal
72%
Draw or Once Municipal
65%

Winning margin

Fuerte San Francisco wins by 2+
14%
Once Municipal wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Fuerte San Francisco 1+ goals
68%
Fuerte San Francisco 2+ goals
31%
Fuerte San Francisco 3+ goals
11%
Once Municipal 1+ goals
69%
Once Municipal 2+ goals
33%
Once Municipal 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fuerte San Francisco (draw refunded)
48%
Once Municipal (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuerte San Francisco at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.33 · 67 matches

Once Municipal away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.47 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuerte San Francisco attack 0.79 + Once Municipal defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.13

Once Municipal attack 1.02 + Fuerte San Francisco defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Fuerte San Francisco scores more
35%
level
28%
Once Municipal scores more
37%

Once Municipal at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Once Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Fuerte San Francisco 1–0 Once Municipal

Fuerte San Francisco beat Once Municipal 1-0 in Primera Division on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Correcaminos in San Francisco Gotera.