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Once Municipal vs Alianza — Primera Division 2019

Once Municipal
Once Municipal
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Alianza
Alianza
3/24/2024Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 12Estadio Arturo Simeón Magaña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Once Municipal30%
×Draw28%
Alianza42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Once Municipal
1.04
Alianza
1.29

Alianza creates 24% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 154 away

creates per match

Once Municipal
1.14
Alianza
1.53

allows per match

Once Municipal
1.05
Alianza
0.95

finishing

Once Municipal+0.00on par
Alianza+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Municipal ↓

Alianza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Once Municipal or draw
58%
Once Municipal or Alianza
72%
Draw or Alianza
70%

Winning margin

Once Municipal wins by 2+
11%
Alianza wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Once Municipal 1+ goals
65%
Once Municipal 2+ goals
28%
Once Municipal 3+ goals
9%
Alianza 1+ goals
72%
Alianza 2+ goals
37%
Alianza 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Once Municipal (draw refunded)
42%
Alianza (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Municipal at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.05 · 118 matches

Alianza away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.95 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Municipal attack 1.14 + Alianza defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.04

Alianza attack 1.53 + Once Municipal defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Once Municipal scores more
30%
level
28%
Alianza scores more
42%

Alianza at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Alianza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Once Municipal 3–1 Alianza

Once Municipal beat Alianza 3-1 in Primera Division on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Arturo Simeón Magaña in Ahuachapán.