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Alianza vs Once Municipal — Primera Division 2019

Alianza
Alianzaadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Once Municipal
Once Municipal
5/12/2024Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Cuscatlán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

Alianza55%
×Draw25%
Once Municipal21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza
1.65
Once Municipal
0.91

Alianza creates 81% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 122 away

creates per match

Alianza
1.83
Once Municipal
1.02

allows per match

Alianza
0.80
Once Municipal
1.47

finishing

Alianza+0.00on par
Once Municipal+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza ↓

Once Municipal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Alianza or draw
79%
Alianza or Once Municipal
75%
Draw or Once Municipal
45%

Winning margin

Alianza wins by 2+
30%
Once Municipal wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Alianza 1+ goals
81%
Alianza 2+ goals
49%
Alianza 3+ goals
23%
Once Municipal 1+ goals
60%
Once Municipal 2+ goals
23%
Once Municipal 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Alianza (draw refunded)
73%
Once Municipal (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.80 · 161 matches

Once Municipal away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.47 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza attack 1.83 + Once Municipal defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.65

Once Municipal attack 1.02 + Alianza defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Alianza scores more
55%
level
25%
Once Municipal scores more
21%

Alianza at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Alianza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alianza vs Once Municipal

Alianza beat Once Municipal 2-0 in Primera Division on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Cuscatlán in San Salvador.