Once Municipal 0–1 Águila: Result & Stats

Once Municipal

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Águila

4/30/2023

Primera Division · Clausura - 20Estadio Arturo Simeón Magaña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Once Municipal33%

×Draw30%

Águila37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Once MunicipalExpected goals in this matchÁguila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.08

Once Municipal

1.02

Águila

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 118 home / 153 away

1.14

creates per match

1.11

1.05

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Once Municipal

1.14

Águila

1.11

allows per match

Once Municipal

1.05

Águila

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Once Municipal+0.00on par

Águila+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Municipal ↓

Águila →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Once Municipal or draw

63%

Once Municipal or Águila

70%

Draw or Águila

67%

Winning margin

Once Municipal wins by 2+

13%

Águila wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Once Municipal 1+ goals

64%

Once Municipal 2+ goals

27%

Once Municipal 3+ goals

8%

Águila 1+ goals

66%

Águila 2+ goals

29%

Águila 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Once Municipal (draw refunded)

48%

Águila (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Municipal at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.05 · 118 matches

Águila away — creates 1.11, concedes 0.91 · 153 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Municipal attack 1.14 + Águila defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.02

Águila attack 1.11 + Once Municipal defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Once Municipal scores more

33%

level

30%

Águila scores more

37%

Águila at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Águila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff