Águila 3–1 Once Municipal: Result & Stats

Águila

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Once Municipal

3/27/2024

Primera Division · Clausura - 14Estadio Juan Francisco Barraza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

Águila52%

×Draw25%

Once Municipal23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÁguilaExpected goals in this matchOnce Municipal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.98

Águila

1.59

Once Municipal

0.98

Águila creates 62% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 122 away

1.72

creates per match

1.02

0.93

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Águila

1.72

Once Municipal

1.02

allows per match

Águila

0.93

Once Municipal

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Águila+0.00on par

Once Municipal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águila ↓

Once Municipal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Águila or draw

77%

Águila or Once Municipal

75%

Draw or Once Municipal

48%

Winning margin

Águila wins by 2+

27%

Once Municipal wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Águila 1+ goals

80%

Águila 2+ goals

47%

Águila 3+ goals

21%

Once Municipal 1+ goals

62%

Once Municipal 2+ goals

26%

Once Municipal 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Águila (draw refunded)

69%

Once Municipal (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águila at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.93 · 156 matches

Once Municipal away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.47 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águila attack 1.72 + Once Municipal defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.59

Once Municipal attack 1.02 + Águila defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Águila scores more

52%

level

25%

Once Municipal scores more

23%

Águila at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Águila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff