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Once Caldas W vs Santa Fe W — Liga Femenina 2020

Once Caldas W
Once Caldas W
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Santa Fe W
Santa Fe W
2/15/2026Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Round 1Estadio Palogrande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Once Caldas W18%
×Draw25%
Santa Fe W57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Once Caldas W
0.76
Santa Fe W
1.59

Santa Fe W creates 109% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 64 away

creates per match

Once Caldas W
0.73
Santa Fe W
1.78

allows per match

Once Caldas W
1.40
Santa Fe W
0.78

finishing

Once Caldas W+0.00on par
Santa Fe W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Caldas W ↓

Santa Fe W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–212%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Once Caldas W or draw
43%
Once Caldas W or Santa Fe W
75%
Draw or Santa Fe W
82%

Winning margin

Once Caldas W wins by 2+
5%
Santa Fe W wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Once Caldas W 1+ goals
53%
Once Caldas W 2+ goals
18%
Once Caldas W 3+ goals
4%
Santa Fe W 1+ goals
80%
Santa Fe W 2+ goals
47%
Santa Fe W 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Once Caldas W (draw refunded)
24%
Santa Fe W (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Caldas W at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Santa Fe W away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.78 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Caldas W attack 0.73 + Santa Fe W defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.76

Santa Fe W attack 1.78 + Once Caldas W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Once Caldas W scores more
18%
level
25%
Santa Fe W scores more
57%

Santa Fe W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Santa Fe W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Once Caldas W vs Santa Fe W

Santa Fe W beat Once Caldas W 3-0 in Liga Femenina on February 15, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Palogrande in Manizales.