Once Caldas W 0–0 Llaneros W: Result & Stats

Once Caldas W

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Llaneros W

5/22/2026

Liga Femenina · Round 12Estadio Palogrande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Once Caldas W43%

×Draw27%

Llaneros W29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Once Caldas WExpected goals in this matchLlaneros W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.05

Once Caldas W

1.33

Llaneros W

1.05

Once Caldas W creates 27% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 41 away

0.73

creates per match

0.71

1.40

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Once Caldas W

0.73

Llaneros W

0.71

allows per match

Once Caldas W

1.40

Llaneros W

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Once Caldas W+0.00on par

Llaneros W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Caldas W ↓

Llaneros W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Once Caldas W or draw

71%

Once Caldas W or Llaneros W

73%

Draw or Llaneros W

57%

Winning margin

Once Caldas W wins by 2+

20%

Llaneros W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Once Caldas W 1+ goals

74%

Once Caldas W 2+ goals

38%

Once Caldas W 3+ goals

15%

Llaneros W 1+ goals

65%

Llaneros W 2+ goals

28%

Llaneros W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Once Caldas W (draw refunded)

59%

Llaneros W (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Caldas W at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Llaneros W away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.93 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Caldas W attack 0.73 + Llaneros W defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.33

Llaneros W attack 0.71 + Once Caldas W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Once Caldas W scores more

43%

level

27%

Llaneros W scores more

29%

Once Caldas W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Once Caldas W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'

K. Renteria← K. Contreras

56'

M. Pacheco← K. Herrera

57'

M. Mausa

67'

P. Aristizsbal← D. Orozco

76'

N. Ruiz

84'

A. Amaya← N. Pastrana

84'

Y. Millan← N. Madrid

85'

A. Ramirez← N. Ruiz

Once

Llaneros

12

16

2

8

20

21

▼

10

4

18

17

▼

Herrera

19

Jaime

22

Roman

15

3

23

24

20

8

6

▼

Orozco

14

▼

Pastrana

5

▼

Ruiz

7

▼

Contreras

Manager: Julio Cesar Ocampo Pineda

53'▲K. Renteria←▼K. Contreras

67'▲P. Aristizsbal←▼D. Orozco

84'▲A. Amaya←▼N. Pastrana

85'▲A. Ramirez←▼N. Ruiz

Once Caldas W substitutes

2Montoya16Trejos1Castro18Aristizsbal25Castano21Ramirez9Amaya10Franco17Renteria

Manager: D. Briceño

56'▲M. Pacheco←▼K. Herrera

84'▲Y. Millan←▼N. Madrid

Llaneros W substitutes

22Poveda3Loboa6Mora5Lasso11Millan25Gonzalez29Pacheco