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Once Caldas W vs Independiente Medellín W — Liga Femenina 2020

Once Caldas W
Once Caldas W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Independiente Medellín W
Independiente Medellín W
5/26/2025Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Group Stage - 13Estadio Palogrande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Once Caldas W30%
×Draw28%
Independiente Medellín W42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Once Caldas W
1.02
Independiente Medellín W
1.25

Independiente Medellín W creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 56 away

creates per match

Once Caldas W
0.73
Independiente Medellín W
1.11

allows per match

Once Caldas W
1.40
Independiente Medellín W
1.30

finishing

Once Caldas W+0.00on par
Independiente Medellín W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Caldas W ↓

Independiente Medellín W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Once Caldas W or draw
58%
Once Caldas W or Independiente Medellín W
72%
Draw or Independiente Medellín W
70%

Winning margin

Once Caldas W wins by 2+
11%
Independiente Medellín W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Once Caldas W 1+ goals
64%
Once Caldas W 2+ goals
27%
Once Caldas W 3+ goals
8%
Independiente Medellín W 1+ goals
71%
Independiente Medellín W 2+ goals
36%
Independiente Medellín W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Once Caldas W (draw refunded)
42%
Independiente Medellín W (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Caldas W at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Independiente Medellín W away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Caldas W attack 0.73 + Independiente Medellín W defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.02

Independiente Medellín W attack 1.11 + Once Caldas W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Once Caldas W scores more
30%
level
28%
Independiente Medellín W scores more
42%

Independiente Medellín W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Independiente Medellín W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Once Caldas W 0–2 Independiente Medellín W

Independiente Medellín W beat Once Caldas W 2-0 in Liga Femenina on May 26, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Palogrande in Manizales.