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Once Caldas W vs Deportivo Pasto W — Liga Femenina 2020

Once Caldas W
Once Caldas W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Pasto W
Deportivo Pasto W
5/4/2026Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Round 9Estadio Palogrande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Once Caldas W42%
×Draw28%
Deportivo Pasto W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Once Caldas W
1.26
Deportivo Pasto W
1.03

Once Caldas W creates 22% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 33 away

creates per match

Once Caldas W
0.73
Deportivo Pasto W
0.67

allows per match

Once Caldas W
1.40
Deportivo Pasto W
1.79

finishing

Once Caldas W+0.00on par
Deportivo Pasto W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Caldas W ↓

Deportivo Pasto W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Once Caldas W or draw
70%
Once Caldas W or Deportivo Pasto W
72%
Draw or Deportivo Pasto W
58%

Winning margin

Once Caldas W wins by 2+
19%
Deportivo Pasto W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Once Caldas W 1+ goals
72%
Once Caldas W 2+ goals
36%
Once Caldas W 3+ goals
13%
Deportivo Pasto W 1+ goals
64%
Deportivo Pasto W 2+ goals
28%
Deportivo Pasto W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Once Caldas W (draw refunded)
58%
Deportivo Pasto W (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Caldas W at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Deportivo Pasto W away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Caldas W attack 0.73 + Deportivo Pasto W defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.26

Deportivo Pasto W attack 0.67 + Once Caldas W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Once Caldas W scores more
42%
level
28%
Deportivo Pasto W scores more
30%

Once Caldas W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Once Caldas W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Once Caldas W vs Deportivo Pasto W

Once Caldas W beat Deportivo Pasto W 1-0 in Liga Femenina on May 4, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Palogrande in Manizales.