Once Caldas 1–1 Patriotas: Result & Stats

Once Caldas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Patriotas

8/15/2022

Primera A · Clausura - 7Estadio Palogrande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Once Caldas54%

×Draw26%

Patriotas20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Once CaldasExpected goals in this matchPatriotas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.79

Once Caldas

1.49

Patriotas

0.79

Once Caldas creates 89% more chances

Season form · 171 home / 109 away

1.35

creates per match

0.70

0.88

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Once Caldas

1.35

Patriotas

0.70

allows per match

Once Caldas

0.88

Patriotas

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Once Caldas+0.00on par

Patriotas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Caldas ↓

Patriotas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Once Caldas or draw

80%

Once Caldas or Patriotas

74%

Draw or Patriotas

46%

Winning margin

Once Caldas wins by 2+

28%

Patriotas wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Once Caldas 1+ goals

77%

Once Caldas 2+ goals

44%

Once Caldas 3+ goals

19%

Patriotas 1+ goals

55%

Patriotas 2+ goals

19%

Patriotas 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Once Caldas (draw refunded)

73%

Patriotas (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Caldas at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.88 · 171 matches

Patriotas away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.63 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Caldas attack 1.35 + Patriotas defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.49

Patriotas attack 0.70 + Once Caldas defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Once Caldas scores more

54%

level

26%

Patriotas scores more

20%

Once Caldas at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Once Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff