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Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellin — Primera A 2018

Once Caldas
Once Caldas
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
10/13/2025Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 15Estadio Palogrande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 171+ matches

Once Caldas44%
×Draw27%
Independiente Medellin28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Once Caldas
1.35
Independiente Medellin
1.02

Once Caldas creates 32% more chances

Season form · 171 home / 185 away

creates per match

Once Caldas
1.35
Independiente Medellin
1.16

allows per match

Once Caldas
0.88
Independiente Medellin
1.35

finishing

Once Caldas+0.00on par
Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Caldas ↓

Independiente Medellin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Once Caldas or draw
72%
Once Caldas or Independiente Medellin
73%
Draw or Independiente Medellin
56%

Winning margin

Once Caldas wins by 2+
21%
Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Once Caldas 1+ goals
74%
Once Caldas 2+ goals
39%
Once Caldas 3+ goals
15%
Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
64%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
27%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Once Caldas (draw refunded)
61%
Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Caldas at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.88 · 171 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 185 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Caldas attack 1.35 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Independiente Medellin attack 1.16 + Once Caldas defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Once Caldas scores more
44%
level
27%
Independiente Medellin scores more
28%

Once Caldas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Once Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellin

Independiente Medellin beat Once Caldas 5-1 in Primera A on October 13, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Palogrande in Manizales.