Once Caldas 2–2 Independiente Medellin

Once Caldas

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente Medellin

J. Cuesta 74'

D. Moreno 61' (pen)

Á. Plata 78'

D. Torres 65'

10/1/2023

Primera A · Clausura - 15Estadio Palogrande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Once Caldas35%

×Draw29%

Independiente Medellin36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Once CaldasExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.11

Once Caldas

1.09

Independiente Medellin

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

1.20

creates per match

0.97

1.25

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Once Caldas

1.20

Independiente Medellin

0.97

allows per match

Once Caldas

1.25

Independiente Medellin

0.98

+0.57scores more than expected

finishing

+0.63scores more than expected

finishing

Once Caldas+0.57scores more

Independiente Medellin+0.63scores more

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Caldas ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Once Caldas or draw

64%

Once Caldas or Independiente Medellin

71%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

65%

Winning margin

Once Caldas wins by 2+

14%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Once Caldas 1+ goals

66%

Once Caldas 2+ goals

30%

Once Caldas 3+ goals

10%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

67%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

30%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Once Caldas (draw refunded)

49%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Caldas at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.25 · 13 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.98 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Caldas attack 1.20 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.09

Independiente Medellin attack 0.97 + Once Caldas defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Once Caldas scores more

35%

level

29%

Independiente Medellin scores more

36%

Independiente Medellin at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

J. Cuesta

Once Caldas · D

7.6

Match Events

6'

16'

22'

24'

46'

46'

J. Alvarado← D. Moreno

46'

A. Ricaurte← E. Cetré

46'

J. Palacios← V. Moreno

58'

Johar MejíaPenalty confirmed

59'

Jonathan Marulanda

59'

Jonathan Marulanda

61'

D. MorenoPenalty

62'

L. Orejuela← A. Ibargüen

65'

D. Torres

71'

E. Beltrán← S. Cárdenas

72'

L. Moran← J. Cardona

74'

J. Cuesta↳ L. Pérez

78'

Á. Plata↳ A. Ricaurte

90'

J. Cuesta← L. Pons

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OnceIndependiente

Overview

64%Possession36%

21Total Shots8

8Corners4

11Fouls11

Shots

21Total Shots8

8On Target3

7Off Target4

6Blocked1

10Inside Box6

11Outside Box2

Passing

64%Possession36%

458Total Passes260

381Accurate Passes192

83%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0