Once Caldas 1–3 Independiente Medellin

Once Caldas

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Independiente Medellin

J. Cuero 9'

D. Cambindo 77'

A. Vuletich 70', 6'

8/5/2021

Copa Colombia · 3rd RoundEstadio Palogrande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Once Caldas43%

×Draw25%

Independiente Medellin32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Once CaldasExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.27

Once Caldas

1.52

Independiente Medellin

1.27

Once Caldas creates 20% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 23 away

2.00

creates per match

1.61

0.92

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Once Caldas

2.00

Independiente Medellin

1.61

allows per match

Once Caldas

0.92

Independiente Medellin

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Once Caldas+0.00on par

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Caldas ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Once Caldas or draw

68%

Once Caldas or Independiente Medellin

75%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

57%

Winning margin

Once Caldas wins by 2+

21%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Once Caldas 1+ goals

78%

Once Caldas 2+ goals

45%

Once Caldas 3+ goals

20%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

72%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

36%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Once Caldas (draw refunded)

58%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Caldas at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Caldas attack 2.00 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.52

Independiente Medellin attack 1.61 + Once Caldas defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Once Caldas scores more

43%

level

25%

Independiente Medellin scores more

32%

Once Caldas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Once Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

A. Vuletich

9'

J. Cuero

26'

N. Giraldo← F. Buschiazzo

27'

J. Díaz← A. Arregui

46'

M. Pérez← N. Messiniti

46'

70'

73'

77'

78'

78'

J. Reina← A. Vuletich

90+1'

R. Harrys← D. Cambindo

Once

Independiente

▼

⚽2

▼

Vuletich

▼

López

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Cuero

Pérez

▼

Messiniti

Manager: E. Lara

26'▲N. Giraldo←▼F. Buschiazzo

46'▲M. Pérez←▼N. Messiniti

73'▲M. García←▼J. Cuero

Once Caldas substitutes

GiraldoPérezGarcíaAnguloQuiñonezEscobarQuiñones

Manager: H. Gómez

27'▲J. Díaz←▼A. Arregui

46'▲J. Pineda←▼J. Díaz

78'▲D. Bueno←▼E. López

78'▲J. Reina←▼A. Vuletich

90+1'▲R. Harrys←▼D. Cambindo

Independiente Medellin substitutes

DíazPinedaBuenoReinaHarrysVásquezHernández

Match Recap: Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellin

Independiente Medellin beat Once Caldas 3-1 in Copa Colombia on August 5, 2021.

Goals: A. Vuletich (6', 70'), J. Cuero (9'), D. Cambindo (77').

The match was played at Estadio Palogrande in Manizales.

Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellin — Copa Colombia 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellin