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Once Caldas vs Cortulua — Primera A 2018

Once Caldas
Once Caldas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cortulua
Cortulua
4/16/2022Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 16Estadio Palogrande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Once Caldas53%
×Draw26%
Cortulua21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Once Caldas
1.50
Cortulua
0.83

Once Caldas creates 81% more chances

Season form · 171 home / 36 away

creates per match

Once Caldas
1.35
Cortulua
0.78

allows per match

Once Caldas
0.88
Cortulua
1.64

finishing

Once Caldas+0.00on par
Cortulua+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Caldas ↓

Cortulua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Once Caldas or draw
79%
Once Caldas or Cortulua
74%
Draw or Cortulua
47%

Winning margin

Once Caldas wins by 2+
27%
Cortulua wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Once Caldas 1+ goals
78%
Once Caldas 2+ goals
44%
Once Caldas 3+ goals
19%
Cortulua 1+ goals
56%
Cortulua 2+ goals
20%
Cortulua 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Once Caldas (draw refunded)
72%
Cortulua (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Caldas at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.88 · 171 matches

Cortulua away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.64 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Caldas attack 1.35 + Cortulua defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cortulua attack 0.78 + Once Caldas defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Once Caldas scores more
53%
level
26%
Cortulua scores more
21%

Once Caldas at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Once Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Once Caldas vs Cortulua

Once Caldas beat Cortulua 1-0 in Primera A on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Palogrande in Manizales.