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Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional — Primera A 2018

Once Caldas
Once Caldas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
A. Del Valle 64' (pen)
10/14/2022Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 17Estadio Palogrande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Once Caldas34%
×Draw28%
Atletico Nacional38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Once Caldas
1.12
Atletico Nacional
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

creates per match

Once Caldas
1.20
Atletico Nacional
1.17

allows per match

Once Caldas
1.25
Atletico Nacional
1.04

finishing

Once Caldas+0.57scores more
Atletico Nacional+0.16scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Caldas ↓

Atletico Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Once Caldas or draw
62%
Once Caldas or Atletico Nacional
72%
Draw or Atletico Nacional
66%

Winning margin

Once Caldas wins by 2+
14%
Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Once Caldas 1+ goals
67%
Once Caldas 2+ goals
31%
Once Caldas 3+ goals
10%
Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
70%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
34%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Once Caldas (draw refunded)
47%
Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Caldas at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.25 · 13 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.04 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Caldas attack 1.20 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.12

Atletico Nacional attack 1.17 + Once Caldas defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Once Caldas scores more
34%
level
28%
Atletico Nacional scores more
38%

Atletico Nacional at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
F. TorijanoOnce CaldasOnce Caldas · D
7.7

Match Events

19'
Jorge Cardona
24'
Dannovi Quinonez
46'
L. Pico← D. Quiñonez
55'
A. Del Valle← A. García
61'
Daniel MantillaPenalty awarded
62'
Nahuel Gallardo
62'
Kevin Mier
64'
A. Del VallePenalty
67'
Nelson Palacio
68'
J. Rodríguez← E. López
68'
Y. Guzmán← N. Palacio
68'
A. Andrade← D. Mantilla
74'
M. Gómez← M. Piedrahita
77'
Ayron Del ValleCard upgrade
78'
Ayron Del Valle
90+3'
Jaider Riquett
90'
R. Blanco← A. Román

Possession

38%Once

Shots

5Once

Pass accuracy

46%Once

Statistics

OnceAtletico
Overview
38%Possession62%
5Total Shots18
0Corners7
11Fouls8
Shots
5Total Shots18
1On Target2
2Off Target8
2Blocked8
4Inside Box7
1Outside Box11
Passing
38%Possession62%
288Total Passes456
216Accurate Passes395
75%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
11Fouls8
4Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
0Offsides2

Primera A: Once Caldas 1–0 Atletico Nacional

Once Caldas beat Atletico Nacional 1-0 in Primera A on October 14, 2022.

Goals: A. Del Valle (64' pen).

Atletico Nacional controlled possession (62%) and registered 18 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Palogrande in Manizales.