Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional — Copa Colombia 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 12+ matches
Once Caldas47%
Atletico Nacional28%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Once Caldas creates 37% more chances
Season form · 12 home / 23 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Once Caldas ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Once Caldas at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches
Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Once Caldas attack 1.92 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.57
Atletico Nacional attack 1.30 + Once Caldas defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
Once Caldas at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "Once Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Atletico Nacional
Independiente Medellin
Real Soacha
Millonarios
Deportivo Pereira
America de Cali
Deportivo Cali
Santa FeOnce Caldas
Llaneros
Alianza Valledupar
Junior
Envigado
Popayan
Águilas Doradas
Fortaleza FC
Bucaramanga
Chico
Jaguares
Leones FC
Patriotas
Depor FC
Real Cartagena
Orsomarso
Cucuta
Huila
Internacional Palmira
Quindio
Ind. Yumbo
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pasto
Tigres FC
Real SantanderIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Once Caldas host Atletico Nacional on Wednesday, 11 May 2022 at 23:00. The match is part of the Copa Colombia 2026/2027 season.
Once Caldas 1 – 2 Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional beat Once Caldas 2-1 in Copa Colombia on May 11, 2022.
Goals: D. Mantilla (34'), A. Del Valle (48'), Á. Angulo (72').
The match was played at Estadio Palogrande in Manizales.