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Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional — Primera A 2018

Once Caldas
Once Caldas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
M. García 50'
P. Ceppelini 87'
V. Hernández 2'
7/14/2019Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 1Estadio Palogrande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Once Caldas35%
×Draw28%
Atletico Nacional37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Once Caldas
1.15
Atletico Nacional
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

Once Caldas
1.20
Atletico Nacional
1.15

allows per match

Once Caldas
1.25
Atletico Nacional
1.10

finishing

Once Caldas+0.57scores more
Atletico Nacional+0.11scores more

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Caldas ↓

Atletico Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Once Caldas or draw
63%
Once Caldas or Atletico Nacional
72%
Draw or Atletico Nacional
65%

Winning margin

Once Caldas wins by 2+
14%
Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Once Caldas 1+ goals
68%
Once Caldas 2+ goals
32%
Once Caldas 3+ goals
11%
Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
70%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
34%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Once Caldas (draw refunded)
48%
Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Caldas at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.25 · 13 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.10 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Caldas attack 1.20 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

Atletico Nacional attack 1.15 + Once Caldas defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Once Caldas scores more
35%
level
28%
Atletico Nacional scores more
37%

Atletico Nacional at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
V. HernándezAtletico NacionalAtletico Nacional · F
8.5

Match Events

2'
V. Hernández
25'
Elvis Mosquera
38'
Baldomero Perlaza
46'
A. Reyes← C. Moya
50'
M. García↳ J. Carbonero
59'
Y. Candelo← A. Costa
68'
E. Ibargüen← J. Carbonero
75'
P. Ceppelini← B. Perlaza
77'
H. Suárez← J. Reina
87'
P. Ceppelini↳ J. Barrera
90+2'
M. Carreazo← E. Ibargüen

Possession

47%Once

Shots

11Once

Pass accuracy

48%Once

Statistics

OnceAtletico
Overview
47%Possession53%
11Total Shots13
2Corners3
17Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots13
1On Target4
6Off Target6
4Blocked3
6Inside Box6
5Outside Box7
Passing
47%Possession53%
377Total Passes424
283Accurate Passes346
75%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
17Fouls12
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides4

Primera A: Once Caldas 1–2 Atletico Nacional

Atletico Nacional beat Once Caldas 2-1 in Primera A on July 14, 2019.

Goals: V. Hernández (2'), M. García (50'), P. Ceppelini (87').

Atletico Nacional controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Palogrande in Manizales.