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Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar — Primera A 2018

Once Caldas
Once Caldas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
4/18/2023Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 14Estadio Palogrande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Once Caldas39%
×Draw29%
Alianza Valledupar31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Once Caldas
1.15
Alianza Valledupar
1.00

Once Caldas creates 15% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

creates per match

Once Caldas
1.25
Alianza Valledupar
0.68

allows per match

Once Caldas
1.32
Alianza Valledupar
1.04

finishing

Once Caldas+0.75scores more
Alianza Valledupar+0.07on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Caldas ↓

Alianza Valledupar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Once Caldas or draw
69%
Once Caldas or Alianza Valledupar
71%
Draw or Alianza Valledupar
61%

Winning margin

Once Caldas wins by 2+
16%
Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Once Caldas 1+ goals
68%
Once Caldas 2+ goals
32%
Once Caldas 3+ goals
11%
Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
63%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
26%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Once Caldas (draw refunded)
55%
Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Caldas at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.32 · 10 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.04 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Caldas attack 1.25 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.68 + Once Caldas defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Once Caldas scores more
39%
level
29%
Alianza Valledupar scores more
31%

Once Caldas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Once Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Once Caldas 1–2 Alianza Valledupar

Alianza Valledupar beat Once Caldas 2-1 in Primera A on April 18, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Palogrande in Manizales.