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Alianza Valledupar vs Once Caldas — Primera A 2021

Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Once Caldas
Once Caldas
8/15/2025Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 7Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Alianza Valledupar41%
×Draw28%
Once Caldas31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Valledupar
1.27
Once Caldas
1.07

Alianza Valledupar creates 19% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar
1.31
Once Caldas
0.92

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar
1.23
Once Caldas
1.23

finishing

Alianza Valledupar-0.40scores less
Once Caldas+0.28scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Once Caldas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw
69%
Alianza Valledupar or Once Caldas
72%
Draw or Once Caldas
59%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
18%
Once Caldas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
72%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
36%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
14%
Once Caldas 1+ goals
66%
Once Caldas 2+ goals
29%
Once Caldas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
57%
Once Caldas (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 11 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.23 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.31 + Once Caldas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Once Caldas attack 0.92 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more
41%
level
28%
Once Caldas scores more
31%

Alianza Valledupar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35
J. ParraOnce CaldasOnce Caldas · G
8.6

Match Events

23'
Leonardo Saldaña
45+2'
J. Diaz← R. Mejia
55'
J. Munoz← R. Manjarres
55'
E. Torres← M. Gil
57'
Kevin Moreno
64'
Y. Valencia← P. Gomez
64'
E. Beltran← D. Quinones
65'
J. E. Perez Balcazar← J. Munoz
65'
C. Lucumi← A. Del Valle
76'
L. Perez← F. Mosquera
79'
S. Cubides← J. A. Zapata Ramirez
86'
Juan Castaño

Possession

51%Alianza

Shots

19Alianza

Pass accuracy

50%Alianza

Statistics

AlianzaOnce
Overview
51%Possession49%
19Total Shots8
8Corners4
13Fouls13
Shots
19Total Shots8
6On Target2
10Off Target3
3Blocked3
12Inside Box4
7Outside Box4
Passing
51%Possession49%
346Total Passes336
288Accurate Passes279
83%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
13Fouls13
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Alianza Valledupar vs Once Caldas

Alianza Valledupar and Once Caldas drew 0-0 in Primera A on August 15, 2025.

Alianza Valledupar controlled possession (51%) and registered 19 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau in Valledupar.