Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Łomża vs Warta Sieradz — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Łomża
Łomża
FT
2 – 0
Warta Sieradz
Warta Sieradz
3/23/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Łomża50%
×Draw24%
Warta Sieradz26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Łomża
1.75
Warta Sieradz
1.20

Łomża creates 46% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

creates per match

Łomża
2.10
Warta Sieradz
1.28

allows per match

Łomża
1.12
Warta Sieradz
1.41

finishing

Łomża+0.00on par
Warta Sieradz+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Łomża ↓

Warta Sieradz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Łomża or draw
74%
Łomża or Warta Sieradz
76%
Draw or Warta Sieradz
50%

Winning margin

Łomża wins by 2+
27%
Warta Sieradz wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Łomża 1+ goals
83%
Łomża 2+ goals
52%
Łomża 3+ goals
25%
Warta Sieradz 1+ goals
70%
Warta Sieradz 2+ goals
34%
Warta Sieradz 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Łomża (draw refunded)
66%
Warta Sieradz (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Łomża at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.12 · 51 matches

Warta Sieradz away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.41 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Łomża attack 2.10 + Warta Sieradz defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.75

Warta Sieradz attack 1.28 + Łomża defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Łomża scores more
50%
level
24%
Warta Sieradz scores more
26%

Łomża at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Łomża will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Łomża 2–0 Warta Sieradz

Łomża beat Warta Sieradz 2-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Łomża.