Łomża 1–2 Victoria Sulejówek: Result & Stats

Łomża

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Victoria Sulejówek

8/23/2023

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Łomża56%

×Draw22%

Victoria Sulejówek22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŁomżaExpected goals in this matchVictoria Sulejówek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.19

Łomża

2.00

Victoria Sulejówek

1.19

Łomża creates 68% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

2.10

creates per match

1.26

1.12

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Łomża

2.10

Victoria Sulejówek

1.26

allows per match

Łomża

1.12

Victoria Sulejówek

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Łomża+0.00on par

Victoria Sulejówek+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Łomża ↓

Victoria Sulejówek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Łomża or draw

78%

Łomża or Victoria Sulejówek

78%

Draw or Victoria Sulejówek

44%

Winning margin

Łomża wins by 2+

33%

Victoria Sulejówek wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Łomża 1+ goals

86%

Łomża 2+ goals

59%

Łomża 3+ goals

32%

Victoria Sulejówek 1+ goals

70%

Victoria Sulejówek 2+ goals

33%

Victoria Sulejówek 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Łomża (draw refunded)

71%

Victoria Sulejówek (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Łomża at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.12 · 51 matches

Victoria Sulejówek away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.91 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Łomża attack 2.10 + Victoria Sulejówek defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.00

Victoria Sulejówek attack 1.26 + Łomża defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Łomża scores more

56%

level

22%

Victoria Sulejówek scores more

22%

Łomża at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Łomża will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff