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Łomża vs Swit — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Łomża
Łomża
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Swit
Swit
11/11/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Łomża50%
×Draw23%
Swit28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Łomża
1.85
Swit
1.33

Łomża creates 39% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 103 away

creates per match

Łomża
2.10
Swit
1.55

allows per match

Łomża
1.12
Swit
1.61

finishing

Łomża+0.00on par
Swit+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Łomża ↓

Swit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Łomża or draw
72%
Łomża or Swit
77%
Draw or Swit
50%

Winning margin

Łomża wins by 2+
28%
Swit wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Łomża 1+ goals
84%
Łomża 2+ goals
55%
Łomża 3+ goals
28%
Swit 1+ goals
74%
Swit 2+ goals
38%
Swit 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Łomża (draw refunded)
64%
Swit (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Łomża at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.12 · 51 matches

Swit away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Łomża attack 2.10 + Swit defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.85

Swit attack 1.55 + Łomża defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Łomża scores more
50%
level
23%
Swit scores more
28%

Łomża at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Łomża will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Łomża 2 – 3 Swit

Swit beat Łomża 3-2 in III Liga - Group 1 on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Łomża.